I retrieved the daily death files from the INSEE website, and I calculated the standardized “whole of France” mortality for the first 277 days of the years 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. I took the population of January 2021 as a reference. Due to delays in reporting deaths, the deaths of 2021 may be underestimated.
(Reminder: the standardized mortality is the imaginary mortality of one year under the assumption that this year has the same population and the same age pyramid as a reference year. This makes it possible to correct the differences in mortality which are due to a difference in the size of the population or in its structure: population more or less numerous or more or less young. The generational age is the age that we will be in the year, for example if we were born on March 11, 1990, on February 5, 2000, we are 10 years old in generational age, and 9 in completed years.)
Here are my tables:
| Standardized Death (Whole France, pop 2021) | ||||
| generational age | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| 0-19 | 3799 | 3897 | 3589 | 3631 |
| 20-39 | 6992 | 7035 | 6814 | 6865 |
| 40-54 | 21754 | 21170 | 21391 | 21188 |
| 55-64 | 41531 | 40038 | 40438 | 40551 |
| 65-74 | 76975 | 76292 | 79028 | 78735 |
| 75 years and over | 347207 | 335734 | 343845 | 343033 |
| total | 498258 | 484166 | 495105 | 494003 |
| Difference in standardized deaths (whole France, population 2021) | |||
| generational age | 2021vs2018 | 2021vs2019 | 2021vs2020 |
| 0-19 | -168 | -266 | 42 |
| 20-39 | -127 | -170 | 51 |
| 40-54 | -566 | 18 | -203 |
| 55-64 | -980 | 513 | 113 |
| 65-74 | 1760 | 2443 | -293 |
| 75 years and over | -4174 | 7299 | -812 |
| total | -4255 | 9837 | -1102 |
| Mortality rate standardized over 277 days | ||||
| generational age | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| 0-19 | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 20-39 | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| 40-54 | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.16% |
| 55-64 | 0.49% | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.48% |
| 65-74 | 1.02% | 1.01% | 1.05% | 1.04% |
| 75 and over | 5.42% | 5.24% | 5.36% | 5.35% |
| total | 0.73% | 0.71% | 0.73% | 0.72% |
| Variation in the standardized mortality rate over 277 days | |||
| generational age | 2021vs2018 | 2021vs2019 | 2021vs2020 |
| 0-19 | -4.42% | -6.83% | 1.18% |
| 20-39 | -1.82% | -2.41% | 0.75% |
| 40-54 | -2.60% | 0.09 % | -0.95% |
| 55-64 | -2.36% | 1.28% | 0.28% |
| 65-74 | 2.29% | 3.20% | -0.37% |
| 75 years and over | -1.20% | 2.17 % | -0.24% |
| total | -0.85% | 2.03% | -0.22% |
In other words, nothing happens.
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I also took a look at the vaccination rate by age group.
rate_cumu_1_inj: one injection
Rate_cumu_termine: two injection
| Vaccination rate on October 10, 2021 | |||
| generational age | rate_cumu_1_inj | rate_cumu_termine | |
| 0-19 | 31.9% | 29.6% | |
| 20-39 | 85.8% | 82.7% | |
| 40-54 | 88.3% | 86.5% | |
| 55-64 | 91% | 89.7% | |
| 65-74 | 93.6% | 92.4% | |
| 75 years and over | 90.3% | 88.4% | |
| total | 75.2% | 73.1% | |
As of October 14, 2021, the number of fully vaccinated people stood at 45.30 million, and the number of injections administered at 96.92 million (Our World in Data).
In 2009, the cost of the H1N1 vaccination campaign amounted to € 668,350,000 for 5,360,968 people vaccinated and 5,924,267 injections administered, i.e. € 124.67 per person vaccinated and € 112.82 per injections administered (some people have been vaccinated twice).
As of October 14, 2021:
- If we assume that the cost of a complete vaccination is € 124.67, then the cost of the campaign amounts to € 5.6 billion;
- If we assume that the cost of an administered injection is € 112.82, then the cost of the campaign is € 10.9 billion.
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I am very interested in major historical events, such as wars and revolutions, which are often crossed by epidemics.
Compared to this type of event, which can kill up to 5 or 15% of the population:
- covid-19 has not significantly impacted standardized mortality,
- covid vaccination does not have a measurable impact on standardized mortality.
This is normal since the covid vaccination can only modify a fraction of the covid mortality, which is itself relatively low.
No randomized or observational study has yet found a positive or negative effect of vaccination on all causes combined mortality. If vaccination has an effect, it is negligible, and can only be measured with very precise statistical tools.
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It would be completely inappropriate to become an “alarmist” on vaccine safety, when the vaccination campaign has the same effect as the covid on standardized mortality: historically negligible.
The discussion of public health has the effect of obscuring the real problem we are currently experiencing: society is becoming dictatorial.
When a state arrogates to itself the right:
- to lock up its population,
- to seek to limit, if not prevent, access to information that contradicts its official line,
- to decree exit and detention schedules at home,
- to veil the face of adults and children,
- to impose an internal passport for everyday activities or for long-distance trips by public transport,
- to take away the livelihoods of those who do not submit,
we objectively we find ourselves in a situation of dictatorship, whether this dictatorship is “justified” or not.
All political issues have turned into health issues, so no one sees the elephant in the room. The alarm around the vaccination campaign is of the same level as that around the covid: it masks the main political issues.
Dictatorship is not found in the justification of the acts, but in the acts themself.
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Here is a shell script that downloads the data and builds an array containing the generational age, death of the first 277 days of 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the population at1, January2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.
This script can be executed on Linux, Mac, and Windows with WSL (Windows Subsystem Linux, the program to run Linux on Windows).
Dependencies:
- xlsx2csv (conversion),
- datamash (calculation),
- bsdtar (decompression).
It is better to watch the script before running it, or rewrite it. Personally, I use the shell because I don’t know the R programing language.
The other calculations were done on Google Sheet.
The script and the completed worksheet is located in this Google Drive folder.
code_mortalite-NO_DOWNLOAD.sh does the same thing as code_mortalite.sh but does not download the files: useful to redo the calculations without re-downloading everything.